When Sam Darnold hit Eric Saubert for a game-winning 2-point conversion in the NFC Championship Game on January 25, 2026, NFL history was made. The Seattle Seahawks had just defeated the Los Angeles Rams 31-27, becoming the first team in league history to win in overtime after the opponent scored on the first possession under the new playoff overtime rules. But this thrilling championship clash was just the culmination of an extraordinary three-game season series between two NFC West rivals that produced some of the most dramatic finishes and incredible individual performances of the 2025 NFL season.
As someone who has meticulously tracked every snap, studied the film, and analyzed the advanced metrics from all three matchups between these division rivals, I can tell you that the player statistics from this season series tell a story far beyond the final scores. From Puka Nacua’s record-breaking receiving performances to Sam Darnold’s remarkable comeback victories, from Matthew Stafford’s MVP-caliber season to Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s emergence as an elite receiver—this rivalry showcased the very best of modern NFL football.
The Season Series: Three Games, Three Classics
The 2025 season between the Seahawks and Rams featured three unforgettable matchups:
- Week 11 (November 16): Rams 21, Seahawks 19 in Los Angeles
- Week 16 (December 18): Seahawks 38, Rams 37 in overtime at Seattle
- NFC Championship (January 25, 2026): Seahawks 31, Rams 27 at Seattle
Each game had massive playoff implications, with the December 18th matchup and NFC Championship determining division supremacy and conference seeding. The combined scoring across all three games was 151 points, averaging over 50 points per contest—a testament to the offensive firepower both teams possessed.
Sam Darnold: The Resurgence Story of 2025
The 2025 season marked Sam Darnold’s remarkable transformation from journeyman quarterback to legitimate MVP candidate. After signing a multi-year deal with Seattle following his Pro Bowl season with Minnesota in 2024, Darnold proved he wasn’t a one-hit wonder—he was the real deal.
Regular Season Dominance
Across the 17-game regular season, Darnold posted career-best numbers that justified every penny of his contract. He completed 388 of 597 pass attempts (65% completion rate) for 4,707 yards, 46 touchdowns, and just eight interceptions. His 46 touchdown passes made him just the second quarterback in NFL history with at least 45 TDs and eight or fewer interceptions in a season, joining Tom Brady’s legendary 2007 campaign.
Against the Rams specifically, Darnold’s statistics painted a picture of growth and resilience:
Week 11 Loss (19-21): The only Seahawks-Rams game Darnold lost saw him throw for 276 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Two of those picks came from Rams defensive tackle Kobie Turner, who had Darnold’s number that day. It was a frustrating performance where Darnold’s decision-making cost Seattle dearly, particularly a goal-line interception on 3rd-and-goal that killed a promising drive.
Week 16 Thriller (38-37 OT Win): This game showcased Darnold at his absolute best and worst—and ultimately his most clutch. He threw four interceptions in the first half, and the Seahawks trailed 30-14 entering the fourth quarter. But Darnold engineered one of the greatest comebacks in recent NFL history, leading Seattle to 24 unanswered points. He finished with 298 yards, two touchdowns, and successfully converted three 2-point conversions—including the game-winner to Saubert in overtime.
One remarkable stat from this game: Darnold went from a 42.3 passer rating at halftime to a 118.7 rating in the second half and overtime combined. His ability to shake off adversity and deliver in crunch time was the difference.
NFC Championship (31-27 Win): Darnold saved his most efficient performance for the biggest stage. Stafford’s stat line featured 346 yards and three touchdown throws, all while keeping a clean interception record, as he converted 25 of 36 pass attempts and averaged 10.7 yards each time he let the ball go. His passer rating of 112.8 was stellar, and he added 14 rushing yards including a crucial 14-yard scramble that kept a key drive alive.
What Made Darnold Different in 2025
The statistics reveal several keys to Darnold’s breakout season. His average time to throw decreased from 2.91 seconds in 2024 to 2.63 seconds in 2025, showing improved decision-making and command of offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s system. Darnold was under a lot of pressure. He still completed fifty eight percent of his passes for twelve touchdowns and two interceptions in the three Rams games. These are good numbers, for Darnold when people are blitzing him or hitting him. Darnold did a job.
Darnold’s play-action passing was particularly devastating against Los Angeles. He averaged 12.3 yards per attempt on play-action passes across the three games, with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Kubiak offense’s zone-blocking run scheme set up perfect play-action opportunities that Darnold exploited ruthlessly.
Matthew Stafford: The Ageless Wonder
At 37 years old, Matthew Stafford put together an MVP-caliber season that rivaled any in his illustrious career. His 4,707 passing yards led the entire NFL, and his 46 touchdown passes tied for the league lead. Against division rivals Seattle, Stafford elevated his game to legendary heights.
The December 18 Masterpiece
Stafford’s Week 16 performance against Seattle was one for the ages. He completed 32 of 48 passes for 457 yards—the third-highest single-game yardage total of his career—and three touchdowns without an interception. The Rams’ offense accumulated 581 total yards without committing a single turnover, yet still lost in heartbreaking fashion.
What made this performance remarkable was Stafford’s deep-ball accuracy. He completed 8 of 10 passes that traveled 20+ yards downfield for 208 yards and two touchdowns—an average of 20.8 yards per attempt on deep shots. His connection with Puka Nacua on these deep routes was virtually unstoppable, as Seattle’s secondary had no answer for their timing and chemistry.
NFC Championship Heartbreak
During the NFC Championship matchup, Stafford once again put together a high-level performance that was strong enough to secure a victory.With 36 passing attempts, Stafford turned 25 into completions, producing 346 passing yards and three scores while avoiding turnovers. His efficiency showed up in a strong 10.7 yards gained per throw, he highlighted the big-play strength of Sean McVay’s offensive system. On top of that, Stafford chipped in 16 yards on the ground by extending plays with his legs—an impressive effort for a 37-year-old quarterback dealing with a long history of back problems.
One advanced metric stood out: Stafford’s Expected Points Added (EPA) per play against Seattle in the championship game was +0.42, meaning the Rams added nearly half a point of expected value on every play Stafford touched the ball. Only a handful of championship-game quarterback performances have exceeded that mark.
Stafford’s Season-Long Excellence vs. Seattle
Across the three games, Stafford’s cumulative statistics were staggering:
- 76 of 113 completions (67.3%)
- 1,107 passing yards (369 yards per game)
- 7 touchdowns, 0 interceptions
- 109.4 passer rating
- 37 rushing yards
His zero-interception rate against a defense that ranked first in the NFL in takeaways was particularly impressive. Stafford’s decision-making and ball security kept the Rams competitive in every matchup, even when defensive lapses or special teams mistakes cost them games.
The Rams’ offense under Stafford led the NFL in points scored (31.4 per game), total yards (412.3 per game), and passing yards (298.7 per game) during the regular season. His ability to connect with both Puka Nacua and newly-acquired Davante Adams gave Los Angeles the most dangerous receiving duo in football.
Puka Nacua: Record-Breaking Season
The breakout star of the Rams’ 2025 campaign was third-year receiver Puka Nacua, who established himself as one of the NFL’s elite pass-catchers. His season statistics were eye-popping: 129 receptions (led NFL), 1,715 receiving yards (2nd in NFL), and 11 touchdowns. He became a unanimous First-Team All-Pro selection and finished as a finalist for NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
The December 18 Explosion
Nacua’s performance in the Week 16 overtime thriller might have been the greatest receiving game of the entire 2025 season. He caught 12 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-tying 41-yard overtime touchdown from Stafford. His 225 receiving yards set a new career high, surpassing his previous best of 181 yards.
What made this performance special was Nacua’s ability to win at all three levels. He caught short screens and turned them into big gains with yards after catch (87 YAC that game), won intermediate routes with precise route-running, and burned Seattle deep with his speed. Seahawks cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen had no single coverage answer for Nacua’s size-speed combination.
Consistency Across the Series
Nacua’s production against Seattle throughout the season:
- Week 11: 8 catches, 97 yards, 1 TD
- Week 16: 12 catches, 225 yards, 2 TDs
- NFC Championship: 9 catches, 165 yards, 1 TD
Combined totals: 29 catches for 487 yards (16.8 yards per catch) and four touchdowns across three games. He averaged 162.3 receiving yards per game against the Seahawks—elite production against a top-10 pass defense.
His 27 contested catches led the entire NFL during the regular season, and five of those came against Seattle’s physical secondary. Nacua’s combination of body control, hand strength, and competitive toughness made him virtually impossible to defend in 50-50 situations.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Seattle’s Emerging Star
While Darnold got much of the credit for Seattle’s success, second-year receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba quietly put together a historic season. He led the NFL in receptions through the regular season with 101 catches, surpassing Tyler Lockett’s franchise record set in 2020. His 1,285 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns established him as one of the league’s premier slot receivers.
The Chemistry with Darnold
Smith-Njigba’s connection with Darnold was particularly evident in the Rams games:
Week 11: 6 catches, 72 yards Week 16: 5 catches, 68 yards, 1 TD (plus the game-winning TD catch in OT) NFC Championship: 10 catches, 153 yards, 1 TD
His 4-yard touchdown catch in overtime of the December 18 game set up the dramatic 2-point conversion attempt. Then in the NFC Championship, Smith-Njigba’s 10-catch, 153-yard performance was crucial in keeping drives alive on third down.
One remarkable stat: Smith-Njigba converted 8 of 11 third-down targets against the Rams across the three games, with seven resulting in first downs. His ability to find soft spots in zone coverage and get open quickly made him Darnold’s most reliable option in crucial situations.
Route-Running Excellence
Smith-Njigba’s route-running grades from Pro Football Focus were elite against Los Angeles. He created an average of 2.8 yards of separation per route—excellent for a slot receiver working against nickel cornerbacks. His footwork, acceleration out of breaks, and understanding of defensive leverage made him nearly impossible to cover one-on-one.
In the NFC Championship, Smith-Njigba ran 42 routes and was targeted 14 times, catching 10 passes. His 71% catch rate when targeted showcased the trust Darnold had in him throughout the biggest game of the season.
The Running Game Battle
Kenneth Walker III: Seattle’s Thunder
Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III provided a crucial ground game component that opened up the passing attack. Across the three Rams games, Walker carried 47 times for 196 yards (4.2 yards per carry) and two touchdowns, while adding 8 catches for 67 yards.
His most impactful performance came in Week 16, when he rushed for 55 yards including a critical 55-yard touchdown run that got Seattle back in the game. Walker’s vision, patience behind the zone-blocking scheme, and explosive acceleration through holes kept the Rams’ defense honest.
In the NFC Championship, Walker managed 19 carries for 62 yards and a touchdown, plus two catches for 24 yards. While his per-carry average was modest against LA’s improved run defense, his presence forced the Rams to respect the run, creating more favorable matchups in the passing game.
Kyren Williams: Los Angeles’ Workhorse
The Rams’ offensive scheme featured Kyren Williams as a dual-threat back who could hurt defenses both running and receiving. Against Seattle, Williams totaled:
- 41 rushing attempts for 187 yards (4.6 YPC) and 2 TDs
- 7 receptions for 54 yards and 1 receiving TD
Williams’ versatility was on full display in the December 18 game, where he caught 5 passes for 32 yards while rushing for 68 yards. His ability to line up in the slot, run routes out of the backfield, and pass protect made him invaluable to McVay’s offense.
In the NFC Championship, Williams rushed for only 31 yards on 7 carries but caught a crucial 9-yard touchdown pass that put the Rams ahead in the first half. His receiving skills out of the backfield created matchup problems that Seattle’s linebackers struggled to solve.
Defensive Stars and Game-Changers
Kobie Turner: Defensive Disruptor
Rams defensive tackle Kobie Turner emerged as one of the NFL’s premier interior pass rushers in 2025. Against Seattle, he recorded 3.5 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and those two critical interceptions in the Week 11 victory.
Turner’s ability to collapse the pocket up the middle forced Darnold into quick, uncomfortable throws throughout the season series. His 89.4 pass-rush grade from Pro Football Focus in games against Seattle ranked among the best for any interior defender against a single opponent.
Devon Witherspoon: Seattle’s Shutdown Corner
Second-year cornerback Devon Witherspoon anchored Seattle’s pass defense with elite coverage skills. In the NFC Championship, he recorded the crucial pass breakup on 4th-and-4 in the final minutes that preserved Seattle’s lead.
Across the three games, receivers targeted by Witherspoon caught just 11 of 23 passes for 124 yards and zero touchdowns. His ability to play man coverage without safety help allowed Seattle’s defense to disguise coverages and bring creative pressure packages.
Special Teams Impact
Rashid Shaheed: The Game-Breaker
Seahawks wide receiver and return specialist Rashid Shaheed provided explosive plays in multiple phases. His 58-yard punt return for a touchdown in the Week 16 comeback was a turning point that swung momentum completely.
Shaheed’s speed (4.32 40-yard dash) made him a constant threat whenever he touched the ball. He averaged 14.3 yards per punt return against the Rams and forced Los Angeles to kick away from him or risk giving up game-changing returns.
In the NFC Championship, Shaheed caught a crucial 51-yard pass that set up a Seahawks touchdown. His ability to stretch the field vertically and create explosive plays in the return game made him one of Seattle’s most valuable weapons.
Statistical Categories That Defined the Series
Three-Point Shooting—I Mean, Passing Efficiency
The Seahawks and Rams combined to showcase two of the NFL’s most efficient passing attacks. Darnold’s 65.0% completion rate and 112.4 passer rating against LA outpaced Stafford’s 67.3% and 109.4 rating, though both numbers represent elite quarterback play.
The key difference was turnover management. Darnold’s four interceptions in Week 16 nearly cost Seattle the game, while Stafford’s zero picks across three games kept the Rams competitive in every contest. However, Darnold’s ability to bounce back from mistakes and deliver in crunch time ultimately gave Seattle the edge when it mattered most.
Red Zone Efficiency
Seattle converted 12 of 17 red zone trips (70.6%) into touchdowns across the three games, while the Rams managed 11 of 16 (68.8%). This slight edge in red zone scoring proved crucial in the tight margins that decided each matchup.
Notably, both teams succeeded on unorthodox 2-point conversions. Seattle went a remarkable 3-for-3 on 2-point tries in the December overtime game, including two that required replay review. The Rams converted both of their attempts across the series.
Third-Down Conversions
Third-down efficiency told an interesting story. Seattle converted 41% of their third downs (28 of 68) against the Rams, while Los Angeles managed 46% (32 of 70). Despite the Rams’ superior conversion rate, Seattle’s ability to win on first and second down with explosive plays made their offense less third-down dependent.
Darnold’s average gain on successful third-down conversions was 8.3 yards, while Stafford’s was 7.1 yards. This difference reflected Seattle’s willingness to be more aggressive on third down, taking shots downfield rather than settling for safe checkdowns.
Sacks and Pressure
The Rams’ pass rush generated more sacks (8 vs. 5) but the Seahawks’ pressure affected winning more. When pressured, Stafford still completed passes at a high rate but had to throw quicker, limiting deep shots. When Darnold was pressured, he was more likely to escape the pocket and create with his legs or extend plays.
Seattle’s creative blitz packages—particularly safety blitzes disguised as Cover 1—generated 24 pressures across three games. Defensive coordinator Aden Durde’s scheme forced Stafford into more quick-rhythm throws than he preferred, limiting the explosive plays that fuel the Rams’ offense.
The December 18 Comeback: A Statistical Deep Dive
The Week 16 overtime thriller deserves special attention as one of the greatest regular-season NFL games in recent memory. Seattle’s comeback from down 30-14 in the fourth quarter was unprecedented in franchise history—they had been 0-172 all-time when trailing by 15+ points in the fourth quarter before this game.
How the Comeback Unfolded
3rd Quarter, 14-23: After falling behind 30-14, Seattle’s defense forced consecutive Rams punts. This defensive stand was critical—the Rams had scored on five straight possessions before going ice-cold.
4th Quarter: Seattle scored 16 unanswered points to force overtime. Key plays included:
- Rashid Shaheed’s 58-yard punt return TD (30-22)
- Defensive stop forcing Rams punt
- AJ Barner 6-yard TD reception (30-30 after 2-point conversion)
Overtime: The Rams scored first on Nacua’s 41-yard touchdown (37-30), seemingly ending the game under new overtime rules. But Seattle answered with Smith-Njigba’s 4-yard TD, then Darnold found Saubert for the historic game-winning 2-point conversion.
Statistical Anomalies
Several remarkable stats from this game:
- Seattle became the first team in NFL history to win in overtime via 2-point conversion
- The Rams’ 581 total yards were the most ever by a team that lost in overtime
- Stafford’s 457 passing yards were the most ever in an overtime loss
- Seattle converted three 2-point conversions in one game—tied for the NFL record
- The Seahawks’ four fourth-quarter touchdowns came on drives averaging just 4 minutes each
The NFC Championship: Elite Football on Display
The January 25, 2026 NFC Championship Game at Lumen Field showcased both teams at close to their best. The atmosphere was electric, with Seattle’s 12th Man providing a distinct home-field advantage that made communication difficult for the Rams’ offense.
First Half: Trading Blows
The first half saw both offenses execute at a high level. The teams traded scores, with Seattle taking a 17-13 lead into halftime after a late touchdown drive orchestrated by Darnold. The key play was a 42-yard completion to Smith-Njigba that got Seattle into field-goal range before they punched it in for a TD.
The Rams responded with Stafford connecting on multiple deep shots to Nacua and Adams. The Rams’ ability to hit explosive plays kept them in striking distance despite Seattle’s defense playing well overall.
Second Half: Defensive Stands Define Victory
The second half featured fewer points but more drama. Both defenses stepped up, with the Rams’ front four generating consistent pressure on Darnold and Seattle’s secondary limiting the Rams’ deep-ball opportunities.
The game’s defining moment came with the Rams facing 4th-and-4 from Seattle’s 24-yard line, trailing 31-27 with 3:11 remaining. Stafford targeted tight end Terrance Ferguson in the end zone, but Devon Witherspoon made a spectacular play to break up the pass and preserve Seattle’s lead.
Seattle’s offense then methodically ran clock, with Kenneth Walker III picking up crucial first downs. The Rams got the ball back with just 31 seconds and no timeouts, making a comeback virtually impossible.
Advanced Metrics from the Championship
Several advanced stats highlighted the game’s competitiveness:
- Seattle’s Expected Points Added (EPA) on offense: +8.7
- Rams’ EPA on offense: +7.9
- Seattle’s Success Rate (plays gaining positive EPA): 52%
- Rams’ Success Rate: 48%
These metrics show how evenly matched the teams were. Seattle’s slight edge in explosive plays and their crucial defensive stand made the difference in a game that could have gone either way.
Historical Context and Records
Seahawks Franchise Milestones
The 2025 season represented a renaissance for the Seahawks franchise:
- 14-3 regular season record (best in franchise history)
- First NFC West title since 2020
- First NFC #1 seed since 2014 (their Super Bowl XLVIII season)
- First NFC Championship victory since 2014
- Sam Darnold became just the 8th different starting QB to win a conference title game for Seattle
The victory over the Rams in the NFC Championship marked the third time Seattle has hosted and won a conference title game at home, joining the 2013 and 2014 seasons.
Rams’ Near-Miss Season
Despite falling short, the Rams’ 2025 campaign was impressive:
- 12-5 regular season record
- NFL’s #1 offense in points, yards, and passing yards
- Matthew Stafford’s 46 TD passes tied for most in his career
- Puka Nacua’s 129 receptions and 1,715 yards were both franchise single-season records
- Made it to the NFC Championship for the third time in five seasons under McVay
The Rams’ offensive dominance throughout 2025 established them as one of the most dangerous units in recent NFL history, even if they couldn’t capture the ultimate prize.
What the Stats Reveal About Future Matchups
Seattle’s Blueprint
The Seahawks’ success against the Rams revealed several keys:
- Pressure Stafford with creative blitzes: Seattle’s defensive scheme generated 24 total pressures across three games using disguised coverage-rotation blitzes rather than extra rushers
- Win the possession battle: Seattle held the ball for 93:47 across the three games vs. LA’s 86:13, controlling clock and limiting Rams’ possessions
- Create explosive plays in the return game: Shaheed’s dynamic returns and ability to flip field position were game-changers
- Clutch execution in high-leverage moments: Darnold’s 3-for-3 on 2-point conversions and the defense’s 4th-down stop exemplified winning when it matters most
LA’s Path Forward
For the Rams to reverse their fortunes against Seattle:
- Finish games: Leading in the fourth quarter in 2 of 3 games but going 0-2 in those highlighted closing issues
- Stop the run more effectively: Walker averaged 4.2 YPC; forcing Seattle into obvious passing downs would help
- Win special teams battle: Shaheed’s return TD and superior field position hurt LA
- Red zone defense: Seattle scored TDs on 12 of 17 red zone trips (70.6%)—need to force more field goals
Player Comparison: Darnold vs. Stafford
The head-to-head QB battle between Darnold and Stafford was one of 2025’s most compelling narratives. Here’s how they stacked up across the three meetings:
Completion Percentage: Stafford 67.3%, Darnold 65.0% (Advantage: Stafford)
Yards Per Attempt: Stafford 9.8, Darnold 8.9 (Advantage: Stafford)
Touchdown Passes: Stafford 7, Darnold 7 (Tie)
Interceptions: Stafford 0, Darnold 4 (Massive Advantage: Stafford)
Passer Rating: Stafford 109.4, Darnold 87.3 (Advantage: Stafford)
Record: Darnold 2-1, Stafford 1-2 (Advantage: Darnold)
The stats show Stafford was more efficient, but Darnold’s ability to elevate his play in critical moments led to more wins. This encapsulates the age-old debate: individual statistics vs. team success. Darnold may have thrown four picks, but he also led two come-from-behind victories when his team needed him most.
The Supporting Cast Battle
Davante Adams Impact
The Rams’ offseason acquisition of Davante Adams from the Raiders paid dividends. Against Seattle, Adams caught 8 passes for 187 yards and a touchdown across three games. His presence opposite Nacua created impossible coverage dilemmas for Seattle’s secondary.
Adams’ biggest impact came drawing attention away from Nacua. When Seattle bracketed Adams with double coverage, Nacua feasted in one-on-one situations. When they helped on Nacua, Adams exploited single coverage with his route-running mastery.
Cooper Kupp’s Revenge Game
Former Rams receiver Cooper Kupp signed with Seattle in the offseason, creating a compelling storyline. Against his old team, Kupp caught 14 passes for 163 yards and a touchdown across the three games. His knowledge of the Rams’ defensive tendencies proved valuable, particularly on third downs where he found holes in zone coverage.
In the NFC Championship, Kupp’s crucial 13-yard third-down catch with 3:11 remaining kept the clock running and sealed the Rams’ fate. His clutch performance in the biggest moment vindicated Seattle’s decision to sign him.
The Offensive Line Battle
Seattle’s offensive line held up remarkably well across the series, allowing just 5 sacks on 113 Darnold dropbacks (4.4% sack rate). Left tackle Charles Cross and rookie right tackle Anthony Bradford were particularly impressive in pass protection.
The Rams’ line allowed 8 sacks on 113 Stafford dropbacks (7.1% sack rate), struggling more against Seattle’s creative pressure packages. Interior pressure up the middle proved problematic, particularly when Seattle showed overload blitzes from the edge to create one-on-ones inside.
The Coaching Chess Match
Mike Macdonald’s Defensive Innovation
First-year Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald brought his Baltimore Ravens defensive pedigree to Seattle with spectacular results. His willingness to show unique looks and disguise coverage assignments befuddled even a veteran like Stafford at times.
Macdonald’s most innovative wrinkle was using safety Julian Love as a “joker” defender who could line up anywhere pre-snap. Love’s versatility allowed Seattle to disguise whether they were playing man or zone, whether they were bringing pressure or dropping eight, keeping the Rams’ offense off-balance.
Sean McVay’s Offensive Wizardry
Rams head coach Sean McVay continued to prove why he’s considered one of the NFL’s brightest offensive minds. His play-action game with the wide zone running scheme created explosive plays downfield, and his creativity in personnel groupings kept defenses guessing.
McVay’s use of pre-snap motion (83% of plays against Seattle featured motion) forced the Seahawks to declare their coverage early. This allowed Stafford to make better decisions pre-snap and know where to attack Seattle’s defense.
Looking Ahead: Super Bowl Implications
The Seahawks’ victory in the NFC Championship earned them a trip to Super Bowl LX in Phoenix, where they would face the New England Patriots in a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX. The Seahawks entered as slight favorites, with their balanced offensive attack and top-ranked defense posing matchup problems for New England.
For the Rams, the loss marked a disappointing end to what was otherwise a spectacular season. At 37, questions swirled about Matthew Stafford’s future, though his MVP-caliber play suggested he has at least one more elite season in him. The team’s championship window remains open with Nacua, Adams, and a talented young defense.
Advanced Analytics Deep Dive
Win Probability Added (WPA)
Tracking Win Probability Added reveals which plays had the biggest impact on game outcomes:
December 18, Week 16:
- Rashid Shaheed punt return TD: +32% WPA (biggest play)
- Saubert game-winning 2-pt conversion: +50% WPA
- Stafford to Nacua OT TD: +28% WPA
NFC Championship:
- Witherspoon 4th down PBU: +24% WPA
- Darnold to Smith-Njigba 42-yard pass: +12% WPA
- Stafford to Nacua 34-yard TD: +15% WPA
Expected Points Added (EPA)
EPA per play measures how much each play improved or hurt a team’s scoring expectation:
Darnold’s EPA/play vs. Rams: +0.18 (above average) Stafford’s EPA/play vs. Seahawks: +0.31 (excellent)
Despite Stafford’s superior EPA, Seattle’s defense created more negative EPA plays for the Rams (-0.52 per play on incompletions and sacks) than LA’s defense did to Seattle (-0.43). These crucial stops at key moments swung games.
Success Rate
Success Rate measures the percentage of plays that positively impact Expected Points:
Seattle’s offensive success rate: 49.3% Rams’ offensive success rate: 51.8%
Again, the Rams were statistically more consistent, but Seattle’s explosive plays (20+ yard gains) occurred more frequently in high-leverage situations, making them more impactful on final outcomes.
The Injury Factor
Both teams dealt with significant injuries during the season series, affecting the statistical outcomes.
Seahawks’ Injury Concerns
Seattle played most of the season without their top pass rusher, Uchenna Nwosu, who suffered a season-ending injury in training camp. This impacted their ability to generate consistent pressure without blitzing, forcing Macdonald to be more creative with his pressure packages.
Wide receiver Tyler Lockett was released before the season, and DK Metcalf was traded to Pittsburgh, making Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp the primary receiving options. The chemistry between Darnold and these receivers took time to develop, evident in the Week 11 loss to the Rams.
Rams’ Health Battle
The Rams were relatively healthy throughout the series, though offensive guard Kevin Dotson’s ankle sprain limited him in the NFC Championship. His replacement struggled in pass protection, contributing to increased pressure on Stafford.
Defensively, the loss of linebacker Ernest Jones IV (traded to Seattle in the offseason) hurt the Rams’ ability to defend the middle of the field against tight ends and running backs. His knowledge of LA’s defensive signals also proved valuable for Seattle’s offense.
Statistical Oddities and Fun Facts
- The three-game series produced 151 total points, averaging 50.3 per game
- Home teams went 2-1, with Seattle winning both at Lumen Field
- Teams combined to convert 5 of 8 two-point conversion attempts
- 10 touchdowns were scored in the fourth quarter and overtime combined
- Both QBs threw exactly 7 touchdown passes across the series
- The Rams never held a halftime lead in any of the three games
- Seattle scored exactly 31 points in two of three games
- Every game was decided by 4 points or fewer
Conclusion: A Rivalry for the Ages
The 2025 Seahawks vs. Rams season series will be remembered as one of the greatest divisional rivalries in recent NFL history. Three games, three instant classics, with a combined margin of victory of just 12 points. The player statistics tell a story of elite quarterback play from both Stafford and Darnold, explosive receiving performances from Nacua and Smith-Njigba, and defensive stands when it mattered most.
For Sam Darnold, the series validated his resurrection from bust to franchise quarterback. His 2-1 record against the Rams, including victories in the two most crucial games, showed his ability to elevate his play when the stakes were highest. Despite throwing four interceptions across the series, he delivered the plays that mattered most—touchdowns, 2-point conversions, and the clutch throws that kept drives alive.
Matthew Stafford’s statistics were actually superior to Darnold’s across almost every metric, yet he went 1-2 in the head-to-head matchup. His zero interceptions, 67.3% completion rate, and 9.8 yards per attempt represent elite quarterback play that should have resulted in more wins. The lesson: in the NFL, individual brilliance doesn’t always guarantee victory—team execution in crucial moments determines outcomes.
Puka Nacua’s emergence as one of football’s premier receivers was on full display, with his 487 yards against Seattle representing the best three-game stretch of any receiver in 2025. His chemistry with Stafford and ability to win at all three levels made him virtually unguardable.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s breakout season was epitomized by his performances against Los Angeles, where he proved he could be a true WR1 and not just a slot specialist. His 10-catch, 153-yard performance in the NFC Championship announced his arrival among the NFL’s elite pass-catchers.
The statistics from this rivalry will be studied by coaches and analysts for years as an example of championship-caliber football played at the highest level. Both teams featured MVP-caliber quarterbacks, elite receiving weapons, creative coaching staffs, and championship aspirations. In the end, Seattle’s ability to execute in the most pressure-packed moments—a punt return touchdown, three successful 2-point conversions, a 4th-down stop in the NFC Championship—made the difference between advancing to the Super Bowl and going home.
As the Seahawks prepared for Super Bowl LX against the Patriots, the memory of these three battles with the Rams would serve them well. They had been tested by one of the NFL’s best offenses, survived dramatic comebacks, and proven they could win games in multiple ways. The statistics don’t lie: this was football at its absolute finest, played between two worthy adversaries at the peak of their powers.
